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Legislatia romaneasca se dezintereseaza de tratamentul judiciar al situatiei de supraindatorare a simplilor particulari si de soarta celor care, indatorati fiind, nu-si mai pot plati datoriile din cauza conjuncturilor nefavorabile.
In conditiile unei economii de piata, orientata catre consum, investiile personale si consumul se bazeaza din ce in ce mai mult pe credit, care se contracteaza la banci, societati de leasing, societati de credite ipotecare, societati de credite de consum ori prin cumparari in rate sau pe credit. Multiplicarea si amplificarea creditelor contractate de un simplu particular poate duce, ca si in cazul comerciantilor, la crize financiare de supraindatorare. Tendinta de indatorare prin credite de consum este cu atit mai mare, cu cit rata de crestere a economiei este mai mare. Tendinta de crestere a ratei de indatorare a luat sfirsit in Romania, dar aceasta rata a ajuns in ultimii 3 ani asa de sus, incit actuaa corectie severa pe care o experimentam ameninta sa provoace nu numai probleme grave sociale, ci si dificultati in alimentarea cu venituri la bugetul de stat si mari probleme bancilor, care isi vad acum clientela pentru creditele de retail redus la un sfert din voluml de anul trecut. Cel mai elocvent exemplu il reprezinta inghetarea creditelor ipotecare. In SUA, la inceputul lunii august 2007, piata ipotecara a fost cutremurata de un adevarat crah, cauzele fiind exact aceleasi care au stat si la baza crah-ului bursier american din 2002, adica « exuberanta » investitionala si speculatia. Politica economica a SUA a permis americanilor cu venituri medii sau mici sa cumpere locuinte pe credit ipotecar cu termene de 30 de ani sau mai mult, cu dobinzi care ajunsesera, la inceputul anului 2007, la valori real-negative (subprime) si aceasta in conditiile in care perioadele de gratie se intindeau pe 2 ani, creditul urmind sa fie achitat pe urmatorii 28 de ani. In august 2007, insa, “bula speculative” s-a spart”.
Familiile americane, in momentul de fata, nu isi mai pot refinanta creditele si, in final, nu isi vor mai putea achita debitele la banci. Corectia subsecventa spargerii bulei speculative a dus la reducerea valorii imobilelor, ipotecile asupra acestora nemaiputind acoperi valoarea creditului ipotecar. Volumul creditarii a scazut la niveluri nemaintilnite si, ca o consecinta imediata, valorile mobiliare prin care sunt securitizate, de obicei, creditele ipotecare (obligatiuni sau titluri ipotecare) si-au pierdut lichiditatea, devenind “active toxice”. De altfel, si sectorul constructiilor a avut de suferit si, pe ansamblu, toata economia americana a intrat in recesiune. Desi aceste realitati sunt comentate in mass-media din ultimul an, totusi Guvernul a lansat programul “Prima casa”, care contine toate riscurile pe care le-au avut si creditele sub-prime din SUA.
Daca acest trend descrescator s-a oprit deja in SUA intrucit, pe de o parte, economia americana contine mecanisme interne eficiente de corectie, iar legislatia americana prevede proceduri de tratament judiciar al situatiei de supraindatorare a persoanelor fizice, care permit un “nou start”, o reintrare in circuitul civil al celor ajunsi faliti datorita consecintelor acestui crah, in Romania astfel de programe si lipsa unei legi a falimentului persoanelor particulare risca sa ne afunde si mai mult in criza. Primele care vor avea cu siguranta de suferit vor fi bancile, intrucit orice credit care nu mai poate fi rambursat – si este evident ca in caz de supraindatorare, clientul bancii nu va mai putea sa-si achite ratele – trebuie inscris ca si credit neperformant in evidentele bancii si trecut in « extrabilantier », operatiune care este insotita, obligatoriu, de constituirea de provizioane de risc, in suma egala cu cuantumul creditului ne-performant. In plus, executarea unei ipoteci poate dura ani de zile, mai ales in cazul debitorilor care au familii, iar ipoteca este pusa asupra casei. La un numar de 800.000 de someri estimati pina la finalul anului bancile vor avea tot atitia debitori care vor trebui sa fie executati silit. Este evident ca un asemenea numar de executari silite nu va putea fi gestionat de o banca, aceasta fiind, de fapt, nevoita, sa isi vinda creantele ipotecare respective, pentru a face rost de cash. Si, cind apare foamea de cash, apar si vinzarile in pierdere catre cei care detin cash-ul. Sunt fonduri si comercianti care abia asteapta o astfel de oportunitate. In fine, as observa ca, in cazul clientilor persoane juridice, odata trecut la procedura falimentului fata de acest gen de debitori, banca poate dispune de sumele constituite cu titlu de provizioane (suma care, de la momentul trecerii creditului neperformant in « extrabilantier » si pina la trecerea la procedura de insolventa, fusese indisponibilizata sub forma de provizion). Insa, pentru clientii persoane fizice, care nu pot fi subiecti ai procedurii insolventei pentru cazul supraindatorarii, acest beneficiu al deblocarii provizioanelor de risc nu exista.
Extinderea procedurii insolventei la simplii particulari pentru supraindatorare ar fi, asadar, un avantaj major pentru banci, care nu ar mai fi nevoite sa mentina provizioanele pina la momentul finalizarii executarii silite asupra datornicului, ci numai pina la momentul deschiderii procedurii insolventei asupra acestuia. In alta ordine de idei, o procedura de insolventa aplicabila persoanelor fizice pentru supraindatorare este necesara si pentru a proteja mediul bancar, in special, si mediul de afaceri, in general, de debitorii « profesionisti » (cei care fac un obicei din contractarea de credite, cumpararea de bunuri in rate, contractarea de leasing-uri, consumul de utilitati pe « credit », fara a se precupa si de rambursare), dar si pentru a da o a doua sansa debitorului scuzabil, care a ajuns in situatie de supraindatorare din motive independente de vointa sa.
Anul 2009, anul instalarii crizei economice severe in Romania, ne-a aratat ca : (i) s-a stabilit un curs de schimb leu-euro cu o depreciere accelerata si severa a leului, chiar daca BNR, cu costul unor miliarde bune, s-a opus in mod naiv acestui trend in octombrie 2008; foarte multe credite s-au dat in euro si, deci, cuantumul ratelor in lei este acum mult mai mare, in valoare nominala; (ii) dobinzile bancare au crescut exponential, chiar daca nivelul creditarii este inca inghetat la nivelul lunii februarie 2009; (iii) salariile au scazut, iar salariatii au fost nevoiti sa accepte scaderea, ca masura de sacrificiu pentru pastrarea locului de munca; (iv) multi debitori au fost concediati, ca efect al crizei sau al falimentului patronului. Toate acestea au dus la o reducere severa a sursei de rambursare. La toate acestea se adauga masurile naiv-populiste ale guvernului, care au agravat criza.
Actuala situatie legislativa va atrage, in primul rind, o grava problema sociala – bancile vor executa din ce in ce mai multi debitori si ii vor scoate in strada, caci la creditele ipotecare singura garantie a fost casa. Dar problema sociala va fi insotita si de o imensa problema financiara. In acest moment, practic nimeni nu mai cumpara imobile sau, daca o face, pretul este la nivelului anului 2003. Bancile nu isi vor putea recupera in totalitate creantele, caci valoarea evaluata la momentul acordarii creditului este déjà mult mai mare decit valoarea de piata, uneori chiar cu mai mult de 50%. Costurile economice si cele administrative vor deveni de nesuportat.
Ce se va intimpla cu cei care, fara rea-credinta, nu vor mai putea sa isi achite ratele la creditele de retail sau chiar la creditele ipotecare? In primul rind, ei vor fi automat trecuti in bazele de date negative ale sistemului bancar, cu consecinta ca nici o banca nu ii va mai credita. Practic, aceste persoane vor fi moarte din punct de vedere civil timp de 5 ani. In al doilea rind, bancile ii vor trece, practic, automat, in portofoliul de credite neperformante, constituind imediat provizioane asupra acestora. Urmeaza executarea silita declansata de banca si, inexorabil, evacuarea din casa cumparata pe credit ipotecar ori vinzarea bunului cumparat pe credit.
Desigur ca cel mai bine ar fi sa avem o lege a falimentului particularilor pentru supraindatorare, dar, daca Legea insolventei se aplica si comerciantilor – persoana fizica, care se poate pune, la cerere, sub protectia tribunalului, atunci, aplicind principiul non-discriminarii, si o persoana fizica simplu particular ar putea cere protectia tribunalului pentru situatia de supraindatorare. Pe de alta parte, dreptul la protectia tribunalului face parte din acquis-ul comunitar si, in virtutea Constitutiei, textul legii romane care limiteza dreptul simplilor particulari de a cere protectia tribunalului nu este aplicabil, fiind aplicabil direct dreptul comunitar.
Din toate aceste motive, am propus o lege a salvgardarii intreprinderilor. Proiectul acestei legi poate fi vazut AICI si va intra in procedura de legiferare in aceasta toamna, ca intitativa parlamentara.
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